considered seriously that if the trade be carried on by way of the cape
of Buena Esperanza, it would be quite possible that the Chinese--who,
in order to go to Manila, have to sail, both in the open and among
islands, with some risk and danger because of the smallness of their
craft--after seeing that the Spanish ships had to make a way-station
at Malaca or Xava, would go from the river of Canton, which is the
gateway from which the Chinese ships set out, coasting from land to
land along their own country, and would change the bulk of their
trade to Portuguese ports, and thus deserting Manila. If they did
this, the principal support and defense of Manila would fail, and
its enemies would change their opinion, since they would no longer
enjoy the benefits that now attract them.

For all the above, Sire, my opinion is that, if the matter were in its
beginnings, from no other part could this trade be directed than from
Nueva España; for it is nearer the islands, and is the region from
which less silver can go. And should this cease, without doubt that
kingdom would be greatly weakened, and the Philipinas destroyed--and
none of this to España's advantage. On the contrary it would be
to España's greater loss, since that country would be filled with
merchandise of little value, at double the money that would be derived
from its sale. The dependence of all the other kingdoms, which is now
sure and not uncertain, would possibly be endangered by venturing upon
the execution of this plan; and your Majesty would also be obliged,
in order to make the sea safe in this route, to have two war vessels
to accompany every trading vessel, notwithstanding the extraordinary
cost which this would involve.

The other things mentioned in the memorial, namely, [_original
MS. broken_; the appointment(?)] of officials, soldiers, and