they have during the past forty years, it is evident that it would not
be long before all marriages would be terminated by divorce instead of
by death. In 1870, 3.5 per cent of all marriages were terminated by
divorce; in 1880, 4.8 per cent were terminated by divorce, and in 1900,
about 8 per cent. Professor Willcox has estimated that if this
increasing divorce rate continues, by 1950 one fourth of all marriages
in the United States will be terminated by divorce, and in 1990 one half
of all marriages. Thus we are apparently within measurable distance of a
time when, if present tendencies continue, the family, as a permanent
union between husband and wife, lasting until death, shall cease to be.
At least, it is safe to say that in a population where one half of all
marriages will be terminated by divorce the social conditions would be
no better than those in the Rome of the decadence. We cannot imagine
such a state of affairs without the existence alongside of it of
widespread promiscuity, neglect of childhood, and general social
demoralization. Without, however, stopping at this point to discuss the
results or the effects of the divorce movement upon society, let us now
consider for a moment how these divorces are distributed among the
various elements and classes of our population.

_Distribution of Divorces._ It is usually thought by those who have
observed the matter most carefully that divorce especially characterizes
the wealthy classes and the laboring classes, but is least common among
the middle classes. We have no statistics to bear out this belief, but
it seems probable that it is substantially correct. The divorce
statistics which we have, however, indicate certain striking differences
in the distribution of divorces by classes and communities.

(1) The divorce rate is higher in the cities than in their surrounding
country districts. We have just noted, for example, that the divorce